Trading data from prediction market platform Kalshi shows that its bitcoin and ether perpetual futures volumes are being driven by an unusual pattern of repetitive, uniformly sized trades, raising questions about the organic nature of the activity, according to a CoinDesk analysis.
Repeating Trade Sizes Dominate the Books
A CoinDesk review of sampled trading data uncovered a striking concentration in specific order sizes on Kalshi's crypto perpetual products. In the ether market, a single trade size of $5,499 accounted for 57% of the sampled volume — an oddly precise figure that recurred far more often than would be expected in a typical, diverse trading environment.
The bitcoin perpetual market displayed a similar signature. There, recurring trade sizes of $2,500 and $5,000 together made up 54% of the sampled volume, suggesting that a narrow set of repeated orders is responsible for a large share of overall activity.
When more than half of a market's volume comes from a handful of identical trade sizes, the numbers deserve a closer look.
Why the Pattern Raises Eyebrows
Highly uniform, repetitive trade sizes can be a hallmark of automated or programmatic activity rather than a broad base of independent traders. While such patterns are not inherently improper, they can complicate the interpretation of headline volume figures, which are often cited as a measure of a market's health and liquidity.
For newer entrants into the crypto derivatives space, robust trading volume can serve as an important signal to attract additional participants. That makes the composition of that volume — and whether it reflects genuine, varied demand — a meaningful detail for market observers.
Key findings from the CoinDesk data review include:
- A $5,499 trade size representing 57% of sampled ether perpetual volume
- Recurring $2,500 and $5,000 trades making up 54% of sampled bitcoin perpetual volume
- A degree of concentration atypical of organically diverse markets
The findings underscore the importance of scrutinizing not just the size of reported volumes on emerging crypto platforms, but also the underlying structure of the trades that produce them.