Galaxy Digital has slashed its estimate for the odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year to just 10%, pointing to a raft of unresolved issues and a tight legislative calendar as lawmakers return to Washington.
Why Galaxy Cut the Odds
The research team at Galaxy Digital dramatically lowered its outlook for the market structure bill, citing several sticking points that remain unresolved in the Senate. Chief among them are lingering disagreements over ethics provisions, the treatment of stablecoin yield, and protections for software developers building in the crypto space.
The firm also highlighted a fundamental logistical hurdle: the Senate faces a narrow window to act once members return from recess in September. With a packed agenda competing for floor time, crypto legislation risks being pushed to the back of the queue.
A 10% chance means Galaxy is all but writing off the bill's passage this year.
The Road Ahead
The CLARITY Act aims to establish a comprehensive framework defining how digital assets are regulated in the United States, drawing clearer lines between the jurisdictions of federal agencies. Supporters view it as essential for providing legal certainty to an industry that has long complained about regulatory ambiguity.
Several unresolved questions continue to weigh on the bill's prospects, according to Galaxy's assessment:
- Ethics-related provisions that lawmakers have yet to reconcile
- Ongoing debate over whether and how stablecoins can offer yield
- Safeguards for developers who write and maintain crypto code
Even with strong industry backing, the compressed timeline and the number of open items suggest the legislation could slip into next year or stall entirely. For crypto firms hoping for regulatory clarity, Galaxy's downgraded forecast serves as a sobering reminder that Washington's appetite for action does not always translate into results before the calendar runs out.