Bitcoin may be approaching the floor of its current bear market, with a potential bottom forming in August, according to analysis from 10x Research. The firm cautioned, however, that macroeconomic pressures — particularly rising Treasury yields — could complicate the picture heading into the fall.
A Possible August Bottom
Analysts at 10x Research suggest that Bitcoin's price action could confirm a bear-market low during August, offering a potential turning point for traders who have weathered a prolonged downturn. The firm's outlook hinges on how broader market conditions evolve over the coming weeks.
A confirmed bottom would mark a significant shift in sentiment for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, which has struggled amid uncertain macroeconomic signals and shifting investor appetite for risk assets.
A bottom in August could give beaten-down traders their first real reason for optimism in months.
Macro Headwinds Loom
Despite the potential for a near-term low, 10x Research flagged rising Treasury yields as a key risk factor. Climbing yields could pressure the Federal Reserve into raising interest rates as soon as September, a move that would tighten financial conditions and weigh on speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Higher rates typically reduce the appeal of riskier investments, as investors can earn more attractive returns from safer, yield-bearing instruments. That dynamic has historically created headwinds for cryptocurrencies during periods of monetary tightening.
Key considerations from the analysis include:
- A potential Bitcoin bear-market bottom forming in August
- Rising Treasury yields as a growing source of market pressure
- The possibility of a Fed rate hike in September
What It Means for Traders
The forecast underscores the tension between crypto-specific technical signals and the larger macroeconomic environment. Even if Bitcoin establishes a bottom, external forces such as central bank policy could temper any subsequent recovery.
For now, market participants will be watching both Bitcoin's price behavior and the trajectory of Treasury yields closely, as the interplay between the two could determine whether an August low turns into a durable foundation for the next move higher.