Wall Street research firm Bernstein has dramatically raised its outlook for the prediction market industry, forecasting that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi could handle as much as $10 trillion in annual volume by 2035 — a tenfold increase over the projection it issued only five months ago.
A Rapidly Escalating Forecast
Bernstein's latest estimate marks a striking reversal in tone from the firm's earlier stance. Just five months prior, analysts had pegged the sector's potential at $1 trillion in yearly volume by 2030. The revised figure not only lifts the ceiling substantially but also pushes the timeline out to 2035, signaling that Bernstein sees prediction markets maturing into a far larger and more durable financial category than initially expected.
The upgrade reflects growing confidence that betting on real-world outcomes — from elections to economic data to sporting events — is evolving from a niche crypto experiment into a mainstream trading venue capable of attracting serious capital.
Bernstein now believes prediction markets could rival some of the largest corners of global finance within a decade.
What's Fueling the Optimism
The prediction market space has seen surging attention over the past year, with platforms recording record participation during major events. That momentum appears to have convinced analysts the sector has staying power beyond individual election cycles, when interest historically spikes and then fades.
Several factors underpin the bullish revision:
- Rising mainstream adoption of on-chain betting platforms
- Increased regulatory engagement bringing legitimacy to the space
- Broadening use cases beyond politics into finance, sports, and current events
- Growing institutional curiosity about event-driven markets
For an industry still finding its footing, a $10 trillion forecast represents an ambitious bet on continued growth. Whether prediction markets can scale to that magnitude will depend on sustained user demand, favorable regulation, and the ability to expand into new categories of tradable outcomes over the coming years.